The Fourth Turning is Here and The Perennials

Twenty-five years ago, Neil Howe and the late William Strauss collaborated on a book titled The Fourth Turning about how history repeats itself. With this recent update, titled THE FOURTH TURNING IS HERE, Neil Howe again reviews the cyclical trends which he contends occur roughly every 80 years, naming them the High (featuring strengthened institutions); the Awakening, (push for change);  the Unraveling, (strengthening individualism as decay sets in); and the Crisis, (value changes such as we may be experiencing now). His writing seems less optimistic than that of Robert Putnam (The Upswing) and in contrast to Peter Turchin (End Times) is more narrowly focused on the United States. Howe also fervently argues that “each generation will have its own common narrative, its own past memories, and its own future hopes,” with elder Prophets, midlife Nomads, young-adult Heroes, and child Artists. While this contention parallels some analysis by Jean Twenge (Generations), Howe’s work is much less accessible and is in direct contrast to Mauro F. Guillén’s claims about the coming post-generational society in The Perennials (see below). I believe that the average reader would find THE FOURTH TURNING IS HERE to be rather dry and difficult to parse at times; however, it did receive a starred review from Kirkus. Notes and Bibliography comprise roughly twenty-five percent of the text.

The megatrends which are creating a postgenerational society are described in THE PERENNIALS by Mauro F. Guillén, bestselling author of 2030: How Today's Biggest Trends Will Collide and Reshape the Future of Everything. Once again, Guillén turns to demographics and technological changes in another thought-provoking work. One of his most appealing proposals is utilizing the ability of people to work well into their seventies. Another is the vast opportunity for lifelong learning and reskilling as people age and new technologies become available.  He argues for mutual respect of the varied strengths between age cohorts and begins with examples like the factory floor at BMW. Overall, an uplifting and forward-looking text, THE PERENNIALS is a Next Big Idea Book Club choice for August.