End Times by Peter Turchin

END TIMES by Peter Turchin is fascinating … absorbing … captivating in part because of how it uses historical social science combined with mathematical modeling and statistical analysis  (what he and colleagues call cliodynamics) to illustrate important points about “Elites, Counter-Elites, and the Path of Political Disintegration.” Turchin points to the rise of unlikely leaders (Trump, Lincoln, and Hong of China) as a society increasingly experiences elite overproduction (“too many superrich and ultra-educated people, and not enough elite positions to satisfy their ambitions”) and popular immiseration (“when the economic fortunes of broad swaths of a population decline,” resulting in discontent and anger). Turchin, a research associate at the University of Oxford and an emeritus professor at the University of Connecticut, introduces other concepts (like precarity – or the precariat, a social class existing without predictability or security) and points to how power and wealth have long been associated in America (commenting that “before 1850, all American presidents were one-percenters (at the least).” He ultimately concludes, “Complex human societies need elites – rulers, administrators, thought leaders – to function well. We don’t want to get rid of them; the trick is to constrain them to act for the benefit of all.” In addition to several appendices, approximately twenty percent of the book is devoted to detailed notes. END TIMES appeared in the Next Big Idea Club Book List for June, and was reviewed in publications like The Guardian, and, along with The Fourth Turning by Neil Howe, in The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal. If this topic interests you, then be sure to read a sample or listen to an excerpt on the publisher’s web site.