Have you been watching the news and thinking about potential
conflict over Taiwan between the US and China? If so, you may be interested in
recent analyses found on the Think Tank Search from Harvard Kennedy School Library and Knowledge Services.
Here, too, are a couple of new books on the subject:
THE AVOIDABLE WAR by Kevin
Rudd was published this past spring amidst positive comments from reviewers at
Kirkus (“an accessible primer on the
evolving China–U.S. rivalry”) and at
Publishers
Weekly (“a valuable guide to de-escalating a global flashpoint”). Rudd,
former Australian Prime Minister and currently president and CEO of the Asia
Society, subtitled his work “The Dangers of a Catastrophic Conflict between the
US and Xi Jinping's China.” He focuses on Xi Jinping’s worldview by explaining Ten
Concentric Circles of Interest with chapters related to staying in power, modernizing
the military, the Belt and Road Initiative, and much more. Based on decades of
international experience, Rudd (who speaks Mandarin and has lived and studied
in China and Taiwan) offers a constructive perspective on international relations
and the individuals and governments involved. He concludes with a couple of
chapters looking at the future where he argues for a concept called “managed
strategic competition” since “we must never become inured to the inevitability
of war.”
DANGER ZONE by Hal Brands
and Michael Beckley is subtitled “The Coming Conflict with China” and will be
published in mid-August. Both authors are affiliated with the American
Enterprise Institute; Beckley is associate professor of political science at
Tufts University and Brands is the Henry Kissinger Distinguished Professor at
the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies. They
argue that China is nearing its “peak,” facing “slowing growth at home and
surging anti-Chinese sentiment abroad” which makes conflict (especially involving
Taiwan) more likely and thus our countries are in a “danger zone”. Advice for
US policy makers is to look to history, specifically Truman’s efforts at the
beginning of the Cold War: set priorities ruthlessly; adhere to objectives, but
take advantage of pragmatic opportunities; take calculated offensive risks; play
for the long game. Would you like to see a preview of
DANGER ZONE? Here is the
link to their upcoming Saturday Essay in this week’s
Wall Street Journal: “
The Coming War Over Taiwan.” A thoughtful, but worrisome outlook that comments
on Xi Jinping’s motivations and future actions, saying, “In the mid- and late
2020s, he’ll have his best chance to accomplish that mission [“liberating”
Taiwan]. … America can win a protracted competition against a formidable but
faltering China, but only if it braces now for the very real possibility of a
dramatic attack on Taiwan.”
No comments:
Post a Comment